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STOP PRESS

 

I have started to Twitter!! Go to: http://twitter.com/ and look for JNBEconomist. Comments and followers welcome.

 

john

 

The World Economic Forum on Africa will be taking place in Cape Town, South Africa from 10th June to 12th June.The main site for the meeting is: http://www.weforum.org/en/events/WorldEconomicForumonAfrica2009/index.htm

 

You can visit the Forum's blog site at:http://www.forumblog.org

 

Why not contribute to the blog?

 

Best wishes,

 

John

 

 

Management - Africa

 

Sierra Leone - Child Health

 

Primary Health Care - Tanzania

 

A new article on the neglected diseases of Africa and the new illnesses of life style change now appears in this section.

 

The WHO has announced its support for a new vacine that should reduce diarrhoea amongst children. Read more on this at:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/8083684.stm

 

 

 

VISIT TO ZIMBABWE

 

I enjoyed my time in Zimabwe and made many new friends. During my stay I gave seven talks or workshops. These were:

 

Harare - speaking to the Youth Group, addressing InterAction members and others and two workshops focusing on Economic Development.

 

Bulawayo - addressing the InterAction members and others and holding a workshop on Economic Development

 

Solusi University - addressing staff and students on the 'Challenges' faced by African leaders.

 

I have been thrilled with the evaluative feedback which I have received as it shows that the majority of those who attended any of the above found them to be both informative and of the standard that had expected - thank you to all of those who completed the evaluation forms.

 

I hope to publish both on this site and via an email to The British Council in both Bulawayo and Harare a TWICE monthly feature entitled ' Letter to Zimbabwe'. This will concentrate on analysing a current issue relevant to the professional lives of those I met and offering both an opinion and some suggested readings on the issues covered. I hope that this feature is useful to all those I met.

 

My very best wishes to you all,

 

 

John

23rd April 2009

 

Letter to Zimbabwe 

 

Edition 1

Edition 2

Edition 3

 

Edition 4

     * Tough Times and difficult decisions

     *The poor are watching

 

 

New March 2009    Podcast 1.  Economic Development

 

                                       Podcast 2  - Challenges of young leaders

 

THE  ABOVE ARE DESIGNED FOR THOSE ATTENDING ANY OF MY SESSIONS IN BULAWAYO, HARARE OR MUTARE. IT ALLOWS US TO 'SPEAK' TO ONE ANOTHER BEFORE I ARRIVE.

 

BEST WISHES,

 

JOHN

27TH MARCH 2009. 

 

 

 

  From:  John Birchall

 

W E L C O M E

 

  to

 

 Letter from an Economist and Africa Weekly News  

                                                             January  2009

 

THE FOLLOWING ARE ALL THE PRE-VISIT MATERIALS I WILL BE POSTING. I HOPE YOU FIND THEM TO BE USEFUL AND ALLOW YOU TO ATTEND FEELING WELL BRIEFED. ONCE WE START WORKING TOGETHER I AM CERTAIN LOTS MORE IDEAS WILL EMERGE. 

 

ZIMBABWE VISIT  APRIL 2009

 

I am now starting to post introductory materials for this visit. I have started with Economic Development. This can be found under the 'visit' section. Next week I will start to post podcasts relevant to the visit. 

 

Visit to Zimbabwe - April 2009. 

 

It seems sensible to use modern technology to allow us to prepare for my visit. To-date, we have discussed some possible topics that we might address in the various forums that are being arranged. Over the coming weeks I will post relevant documents, notes and suggested readings. These can then be circulated to those who will be attending our meetings in Bulawayo, Harare and Mutare. I would also like to continue our dialogue via the internet and so once I have visited let's think about regular chats etc.

 

Perhaps one way in which we can keep in contact is by a regular Letter to Zimbabwe.

 

It would appear under the following heading

 

Letter to Zimbabwe

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Provisional Programme

 

Harare - 7th April -   Economic Development - Introductory Session

                8th April - Workshop on Economic Development

                                    Dinner and Speech - The challenges facing young leaders

 

                16th April - Conclusion of our work on Economic Development

Bulawayo

                14th April -  The challenges facing young leaders

                15th April -  Workshop on Economic Development - featuring green business and food sustainability

 

Mutare   17th April - African University - The challenges facing youg leaders

Initial ideas on what we may discuss during our workshops - these are designed to be interactive.

 

Economic Development

 

Some initial thoughts

 

  1. What does it mean and how can it be measured – GDP/GNP, HDI or other wider measures?
  2. Does a nation’s history affect its ability to development and the direction any economic advantages may move in?
    • colonialism
    • post independence political structure
    • other issues
  3. How do we increase productivity?
  4. Where will the finance come from?
  5. Is international trade fair?
    • north v south, the role of EU
    • US trade policy
  6. Is globalisation an advantage or a disadvantage to a developing economy
  7. The role of MNC's
  8. The development of trading blocks
  9. The economic downturn
  10. What of Zimbabwe?

 

It is issues such as these that I will want to address, debate and consider.

 

I hope that between us we can develop strategies, reactions etc in what will be an open, frank and meaningful discussion.

 

Some other areas for our consideration 

 

What of regional interation of economies

Is there an opportunity for greater regional co-operation and may be a move towards a single currency?

Are there risks associated with Africa becoming more integrated into the world economy?

How will demographic changes affect Africa?

How will China react to the global economic downturn?

 

 

The World Trade Association (WTO) now predicts that world trade will fall by 9% in 2009. It rose by just 2% in the year ended 31st December 2008 and by 6% for the year ended 31st December 2007.

 

Since the last G20 meeting in Autumn 2008 ALL member states have adopted some form of protectionism.

Hub and cluster development

Stability in exchange rates, especially US$ and Euro.

Human Capital - UPE, research, technology transfer, skills transfer and how much should be spent on higher education?

 

Some more issues to consider 

 

Is democracy that tends to focus on elections and as such may be superficial, causing increased political violence instead of reducing it?

Do large turnouts simply mean a 'football scarf' attitude to democracy and it does mean that the electorate have faith in ballots?

Are weak news organisations failing to analyse government policies and failing to inform citizens of what is really happening?

To flourish amongst the bottom billion will democracy have to gradually erode ethnic identities and replace them with a national identity?

Will it need visionary leaders capable of building a national identity?

To be a true force for good democracy has to be more than a fascade.

Coups cost countries up to 7% of GDP and are NOT a cheap way of replacing a government.

Aid may actually act as  a sweetener and cause coups, for once it reaches 4% of GDP the risk of military take-over increases by one third.

Leakages from aid flows finance at least 40% of military spending , yet military spending does not necessarily bring peace.

Recent studies have shown that once average income reaches US$ 2700 then the new wealthy have clearly expressed priorities for their politicians to deliver. If these are not met then they revolt in a number of ways. It is interesting to note that China recently passed this figure. So, should western governments accept coups if the elected government they replace was not delivering what the people wanted?

 

Economics

Remittances

Falls in commodity prices

Drop on commodity demand

Reduction in aid flows

Need for fiscal restraint in developed nations

Should African countries borrow to increase spending on agriculture, education and health - education for an informed populace, health care for a healthy citizenry and agriculture for food security.

Is it time for commodities to be denominated in the currency of the country from which they come?

Despite the current western-based downturn now is the time for African governments to build a socio-economic-political institutional framework that rests solidy on the triple pillars of education, health and agriculture - and start to ignore the old rules based on Bretton Woods and 1944!

 

Power point presentation to be used in Bulawayo and Harare

 

Other articles to read

http://www.sundaytimes.lk/031005/ft/18.htm

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2002/oct/31/globalisation.lewiswilliamson

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/globalisation

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/business/1790941.stm

 

Economic Development

An introduction

An overview of economic development - 2008

The role of Multi-National Corporations(MNC's)

Extra materials in power point format

Some data ready for our discussions

 

Blogs worth visiting

http://www.cgdev.org/section/opinions/blogs/

http://blogs.odi.org.uk/blogs/main/

http://www.devex.com/blogs/252/blogs_entries

 

Advantages of globalisation

  •  

           Capital flows will be determined by comparative advantage of nations

  • There will be a wide distribution of technology and 'technology' and 'skills' transfer
  • Wider choice for consumers
  • Dismantling of any trade barriers
  • An increase in the level of world trade
  • Increased access to economies of scale making products cheaper and more efficient to produce
  • Trade determined fully by comparative advantage
  • Increased worldwide economic growth
  • More efficient global markets

The case against globalisation

  • Investment flows will often ignore the less developed countries (LDC's)
  • Labour costs are driven down and living standards may also be driven down
  • Increased monopoly power for multinational corporations
  • Increased urbanisation in many countries
  • International capital is mobile, but labour is not
  • Conditions of employment deteriorate and governments put under pressure by multinational corporations
  • Less democratic control of economic forces as power moves to multinational corporations
  • Financial instability
  • Unsustainable development around the world
  • Growth of consumerism which may not be appropriate to every country

 

An introduction

Some of the challenges

An introductory course in globalisation

Extra materials in power point format

 

Food Sustainability and Security

The main issue here is to increase the productivity of 420 million small-scale farmers who farm LESS than 2 hectares. 

A brief introduction

 

Some articles on food securityand web sites worth bookmarking

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7850210.stm

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7851531.stm

http://www.un.org/issues/food/taskforce/index.shtml

http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/en/

http://www.ifad.org/operations/food/

http://www.un.org/special-rep/ohrlls/ohrlls/aboutus.htm

http://www.unep.org/

http://wfp.org/english/?ModuleID=137&Key=2797

http://www.un.org/issues/food/taskforce/pdf/Madrid.pdf

http://www.unpei.org/programmes/africaprofiles.asp

 

Green Business 

Green Business  A Case Study

 

Blogs worth visiting

 http://blog.businessgreen.com/

An excellent blog dedicated to green business.

http://www.businessgreen.com/business-green/news/2228618/biggest-sub-saharan-wind-farm

An interesting article on AFrica's largest wind farm

http://www.greenbusinessafrica.com/

An excellent site dedicated to green business across Africa

http://www.africabusinessnews.com/

A site with some news of the latest green business initiatives in Africa

http://greenafricafoundation.org/

The green Africa site, it has some excellent artciles on how the continent can both develop and yet be 'green'.

 

Climate Change

Melody and I are working towards my visit and we hope tp post useful resources and a regular podcast which will tell you how the project is developing.

The following is a detailed power point presentation on Africa nd Climate Change. It formed the main part of a presentation I gave in Harare in April 2008.

The British Council in Zimbabwe has embarked on a Climate Change Program in parternship with UNESCO under the title 'Our Climate, Our Future'.  Our main aims are to: 

  1. raise awareness of what Climate Change is and create a demand for action by the powers that be;

  2. support relationships and networks which lead to action on Climate Change mitigation and adaptation;

  3. match and adapt materials to a local context by adding context-specific information; and

  4. adopt a medium of delivery to suit the needs and expectations of local context 

This is meant to be done through three distinct phases, namely the awareness, implementation and lobbying phaes.  The first phase which is currently in the initial stages will be launched next week at the First Stakeholders Meeting on Climate Change.  Participants are from ministerial bodies, parastataals, non-governmental organizations as well as academia.

Africa and Climate Change

Global Warming - an update

Climate change - the case of China

Educating children in Mauritius

Zimbabwe-Climtae Change - initial ideas.ppt

Zimbabwe-Climtae Change - Data.ppt

 

 

Some blogs worth visiting for general information on current events

 http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/

Robert Preston, BBC Business Editor. He is known for breaking stories before most of his colleagues

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/stephanieflanders/

Stephanie Flanders, BBC Economics Editor

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/richardblack/

Richard Black, BBC Environment Editor

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/markmardell/

Mark Mardell, BBC Europe Editor

 

The basic framework for my lecture/talk on the Challenges facing those who will lead in Africa

 

 

Lecture –  Challenges

 

 

Good evening ladies and gentlemen

 

 

 

I am privileged to stand before an audience of those who are already leaders within their field or are training to become so. As such I am presented with an excellent opportunity to look both back to a time when I was in your position and also to consider what may happen in the future.

 

 

 

I would like to stress that this is NOT a formal lecture and that at its close I hope we will be able discussion the implications of what I have said.

 

 

 

Change is constant, or at least that is what a number of management experts tell us. I believe that not only is it a truism but I that the pace of change will increase. As leaders you will need to be ware of the casual factors influencing change in your own area of responsibility and be prepared to manage the changes that will arise.

 

 

 

My initial return to earlier times takes me just eighteen months back into the past. Who would have believed that the ‘credit crunch’ would have caused such damage across almost every country on earth?

 

 

Where to invest post 9/11

Low interest rates to reduce severity of recession that followed

China prepared to buy the US debt

Lack of macro management from Bush Administration

Search by investors for higher returns

Encourage property ownership

Lend into sub-prime market

Sold all over the world

Unemployment increases

Interest rates tighten

Homes become too costly to keep

Cash flow dried up for banks

Asset value of balance sheets of banks falter

No one wants to say how many toxic assets they own

Credit dries

Confidence collapses

 

Crisis reigns - food sustainability and water - problems

 

 

 

Now, if you have not realised that globalism has its advantages and disadvantages then the last few minutes must have altered that state of mind.

 

What are these and do they always deliver what is promised?

 

 

 

At first some observers thought that the credit crunch would barely affect Africa but then they started to think about the interdependence and inter-relationships that exist within modern commerce. Now we know that Africa is suffering because:

 

 

·        remittances have fallen

·        commodity prices have fallen

·        demand for other products has fallen

·        fears of protectionism

 

·        drop in aid funds

 

MANY CHALLENGES BUT LET'S LOOK BACK FOR A FEW MOMENTS

 

  Now, let's look back 40 years - a large proportion of an average lifetime if one deducts childhood and old age. 

 

1968 – The year of revolution

 

If the events of 1968 turned on one focal point it was the American war against the North Vietnamese communists.

With half a million US troops in Vietnam, how could they lose?America thought they were invincible as they had never lost a war, yet their defeat was played out on national television.

John Hope Franklin - 1965 - Montgomery-voting rights 

 

By the end of 1968 around 15,000 US servicemen had lost their lives - it was the worst year and it was far from over.Race relations, justice and the war filled people with anger and they demonstrated across the world in their thousands.As riots filled the streets of Chicago and the Democratic Party turned itself inside out, the Republican candidate Richard Nixon went on to be elected President.

 

In 1968, the Vietnam War broke a president, divided the nation, split the democrats, divided generations and left US prestige in tatters.The United States endured a year of almost unbroken political drama and tragedy, however the other superpower, the monolithic Soviet Union, could not escape the mood of the time.

 

In 1968, out went the old Stalinist and in came Czechoslovak President Ludvik Svoboda.A programme of wide-ranging democratic reforms had been gathering pace in the face of Soviet disapproval and the rebirth of social and political freedom became known as the 'Prague Spring'.The idea that communism might evolve in a different way raised many problems.

By August, Czechoslovakian leaders were locked in talks with the Soviets and tensions were high - were they going to sell-out the newly gained freedoms?Czechs filled the streets of Prague and every citizen wanted to know what was happening at the meeting.Two weeks of waiting proved too late and the dream of freedom was shattered.Dozens of people were killed in a massive military clampdown by five Warsaw Pact countries, as 165,000 troops invaded Czechoslovakia from all sides.Soviet tanks led the way in crushing the Prague Spring.

 

The Czechoslovak authorities ordered their vastly outnumbered army not to fight and appealed to the public for restraint.Soviet troops controlled the streets of Prague but they had lost the hearts and minds of people forever.Czechs were not alone in their cry for freedom, it was shared elsewhere in the Soviet block.T

 

The student movement was European wide and even before the uprisings in Paris, young people at Warsaw University marched in protest against the banning of a play that was allegedly thought of as being anti-Russian.Demonstrations in favour of free speech spread rapidly in Poland and in Yugoslavia, students in Belgrade joined in the clamber for more freedom.

 

Even in China, by 1968 the so-called Cultural Revolution was out of control and Chairman Moa called in the army to repress the Red Guards.In London, 10,000 students marched towards the American Embassy in Grosvenor Square, in protest of what had happened in Vietnam.In Paris, young people were not happy with their education system and clashed with police.The rioting was so intense and lasted so long that some of those caught up in it believed the country was close to revolution.

 

The closure of the Sorbonne, the heart of the university intensified the riots.Within days, rioting had spilled onto the streets and students had been joined by thousands of disaffected workers.Across France, an estimated ten million workers went on strike.Students in Japan, Germany and the US also took to the streets, as the rest of society looked on in anger and bewilderment.My father could not believe he had fought a war for this to be outcome: I believe he had. 

 

France – equality, death penalty, equality, EU development – peace, prosperity and justice

 

 

 

Czech – socialism with a human face – Dubjeck, will of people, phone lines through Austria, Jan Palek, defeat, 20 years before end of Communist rule – as power is concentrated in the hands of a few, so they fear and so monitor the movements and thoughts of the majority. Communism now gone united and integrated Europe.

 

 

 

USA – Martin Luther King, Robert Kennedy, riots, Democrat Convention (Chicago), now Obama, changes in US foreign policy,

 

   ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ 

 

 Now, let's back just 20 years, to a year when Europe changed 

1989      Europe’s Revolution

 

February: Polish government starts round table talks with Solidarity

 

  

 

March: First genuine election in the USSR

 

    

 

May: Hungary removes electrical fencing from border with Austria

 

    

 

June: Solidarity wins Polish election

 

  

 

August: Millions of protesters in Baltic States form human chain to demand autonomy from Moscow

 

    

 

September: Hungary allows East German refugees to cross into Austria

 

    

 

October: Thousands attend peaceful protests in Leipzig

 

    

 

November: Fall of Berlin Wall

 

  

 

December: Romanian dictator Ceausescu executed / dissident Vaclav Havel becomes president of Czechoslovakia

 

    

A unified Germany, communism collapses and people are free to behave as they wish. The period that followed was not without its problems

            * Transition

            * Resource sales

            * Continued role of former communists

            *re-alignment

 

            * Re-appearance of Russia as a major power

 

  

But the will of the people had been restored and now the majority of those countries removed from the Soviet Empire are members of EU. The last to join will be the Balkans, who experience a brutal civil war during the early and mid 1990’s but Croatia will soon join and the others, including Serbia will follow. Even Turkey – 96% Muslim – may join by 2015.

  

How do those a long distance from such momentous events view them? 

 

 

 

 

1. Global changes and interdepence

2. The hopes of previous generations and their achievments

3. The hopes and fears of those hoping to lead in the future

4. The qualities needed for leading in an environment of constant change.

 

Climate Change

 

We started our discussions on this important topic last year and so I hope many of you have already started to think about how your country will develop and remain true to its citizens. That is, will current development actually leave huge costs for those who follow to pay? If so, how will we address these issues?

 

 

Food sustainability and green business

Though I will not be directly addresing these important issues I would like to include them in all of our deliberations. So, please start to think about HOW your country can improve its ability to feed its citizens. Also, what policies need to be adopted to make agriculture and industry more aware of their responsibility to future generations and their environment?

These will encourgae to look to the future aware of the trade - offs that will face all who lead, make decisions and apply these to all sections of the economy.

 

 

A brief analysis of the toughts of just one, speaking from Mauritius So loud is the cry that the sound is beyond the capacity to hear with human ears but right for the human heart to sense.It is the collapse of structures which have invited the trust and dependency of millions of people - their hopes, their futures and more specifically their finances.    At the heart of this global demise is the need for selfish gains, inward but not outward interests, individual rather than corporate growth, which proves contrary to the principles embedded in accurate leadership.This is what our world is now shouting across to us all.

 

When will we listen?Our most financially esteemed nations are yet again seeking to reap where they did not sow -  The UAE is now seeking lands far and wide to deal with the inevitable global food crisis. So is China. At whose expense do you ask? At the expense of the vulnerable and dependent nations who are economically subject to every whim and fancy of the economic giants.Who will speak out for them?I remember watching a news report of the recent Mumbai bombings.

The thing that struck me most was the responses of the people who have built their lives in their own land - " I have no more hope for my country, my children are no longer safe here" was the cry of a mother and professional.These are just isolated cases across our globe but one thing is sure, they are voicing the same cry - for true leadership.

Remember, whatever systems hold our world together, they are built on the hearts and the hopes of ordinary people.  

So what chalenges might you face?

Freedom of the individual

Infant mortality

Maternal Mortality

 

Climate change

Electoral systemsHuman CapitalEquality of AccessHuman RightsClean and transparent governmentIdeological politics, less ethnic drivenEnd of dependency cultureReduction in aid flowsGain control over resourcesProcess these and add valueCurrency strength and pricing strategiesRegional Trade/Blocks Martin Luther King

 

“When you are right you cannot be too radical; when you are wrong, you cannot be too conservative.’’

“In the end, we will remember not the words of our enemies, but the silence of our friends Let’s end there and discuss the implications of what I have covered. Robert Kennedy 

 

"Few men are willing to brave the disapproval of their fellows, the censure of their colleagues, and the wrath of society. Moral courage is a rarer commodity than bravery in battle or great intelligence. Yet it is the one essential, vital, quality for those who seek to change a world which yields most painfully to change.’’

 

 

 

The World Trade Organisation

 

The case for WTO

 http://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/whatis_e/10ben_e/10b00_e.htm

The case against the WTO

 

http://www.poptel.org.uk/panap/latest/wto10.htm

 

Types of Protectionism

Tariffs

A tariff is a tax on imports, which can either be specific (so much per unit of sale) or ad valorem (a percentage of the price of the product). Tariffs reduce supply and raise the price of imports. This gives domestic equivalents a comparative advantage. As such tariffs are distorting the market forces and may prevent consumers from gaining the benefit of all the advantages of international specialisation and trade. The impact of a tariff is shown in figure 1 below.

 

Figure 1 Impact of a tariff

The tariff has the effect of shifting the world supply curve vertically upwards by the amount of the tariff. The level of imports will fall from QaQd to QbQc. The government will also raise revenue, shown by the blue shaded area. The level of domestic production will increase from 0Qa to 0Qb.

 

Quotas

Quotas have the effect of restricting the maximum amount of imports allowed into an economy. Once again they reduce the amount of imports entering an economy and increase the equilibrium price within the market. The government receives no revenue from a quota, as it does with a tariff, unless it can set up a system of licences.

Exchange control

The government could limit the amount of foreign currency available for paying for imports. These are not allowed amongst member states of the European Union (EU), for example, and have become more difficult to sustain in a world of highly mobile capital.

Export subsidies

Export subsidies allow exporters to supply the market with more product than the natural equilibrium would have allowed. Foreign consumers will enjoy increased economic welfare as the price of their purchases fall. Domestic employees might enjoy more wages and job security. But taxpayers are footing the bill for this. Domestic firms might divert trade into exports and ignore the home market. This could lead to increases in domestic prices.

The impact of a subsidy is shown in figure 2. The supply curve is shifted vertically downwards by the amount of the subsidy and this leads to a lower equilibrium price and a higher quantity being traded.

Figure 2 The effect of a subsidy

These 'expenditure-switching' polices are normally not allowed under membership conditions of both the WTO and EU.

Voluntary export restraints (VER's)

Some quotas are voluntarily agreed between countries. This happened on a significant number of occasions with Japanese firms (e.g. cars, televisions, videos) during the 1990s. Where the quotas have been agreed, they are known as Voluntary Export Restraints (VER's). In fact over 200 VER's were in force in the early 1990s. So why did the firms agree to these restrictions voluntarily? Well the answers to this are varied. Often it may have been because they felt it would help avoid more punitive restrictions, but sometimes it was in their interests. Where the Japanese firms had a significant cost advantage over the domestic producers, the voluntary quotas meant that they could charge significantly higher prices. The higher margins they earned more than made up for the restricted number they sold and profitability was maintained or improved.

Other protectionist measures

Countries can also use a range of other protectionist measures to restrict imports. These might include:

  • Administrative obstacles - countries can set administrative hurdles. For example, they may require significant levels of paperwork and then deal with these processes slowly making it difficult for importers to compete on a level playing field with other firms.
  • Health and safety standards - countries may set onerously high health and safety standards for goods that are imported, once again making life difficult for importers.
  • Environmental standards - countries can set high environmental standards that they know only domestic firms are likely to be able to achieve, once again making life difficult for importers.

The case for protectionism

 

So, why do some governments still protect trade? The main reasons include:

  • To safeguard domestic employment - as protectionist polices reduce import penetration. In terms of the identity AD = C + I + G + (X-M), the lower is M, the greater will be aggregate demand and thus the higher the level of domestic output and employment.
  • To correct balance of payments disequilibrium - as demand for imports is dampened and exports promoted. This makes the domestic output appear to be competitive as the most common policy used is a deliberate depreciation of the domestic currency.
  • To prevent labour exploitation in developing economies - this is really a moral argument as it rests on making imports more accurately reflect their true cost of production. However, it might also reduce imports from some of the poorest economies in the world.
  • To prevent dumping - which is where economies sell goods in overseas markets at a price below the cost of production. Domestic consumers pay more than those buying overseas. Such low prices are part of a policy to destroy rivals in exports markets.
  • To safeguard infant industries - as shifts in comparative advantages arise so some countries become able to enter new markets. Their fledgling industry needs some protection from the power of already established competitors.
  • To enable a developing country to diversify - this is similar to the infant industries argument. Many developing countries are heavily dependent exports of primary commodities. This can leave them very exposed to changes in international commodity prices. If they want to diversify and develop new export revenue streams, they may need to protect these new industries from full exposure to international competition for a while.
  • Source of government revenue - where protectionism takes the form of a tariff, apart from reducing demand for imports via the impact of a higher price, this will also raise revenue for the government, like any other tax. The revenue raising function will be most successful where the demand for imports is price inelastic.
  • Strategic arguments - a particular product or industry might be of strategic importance to a country e.g. agriculture or coal, and protectionism may be justified on the grounds that it is keeping alive an industry which plays a vital part in the economy perhaps because of social, political or military reasons 

The case against protectionism

  • Downward multiplier effects - if a country successfully protects against imports, this will reduce the level of imports. However, one country's imports are another country's exports and this reduction in exports will lead to a multiplied effect. This may even reduce demand for exports from the country that raised the protectionist measures in the first place, but will certainly reduce world output.
  • Retaliation - any protectionist measure tends to be instantly met with some form of retaliation. This will tend to mean that any success in protecting against imports leads to a fall in exports when the retaliation starts to bite.
  • Costs - tariffs (and other protectionist measures) tend to lead to a cost on society. If we look at the tariff diagram in figure 1 below we can see that the tariff leads to a reduction in imports. Some of the benefits from the reduced imports are passed to domestic firms in the form of higher prices and the government in the form of revenue, but the triangles either side of the blue shaded area represent a welfare cost to society. Consumers will be paying higher prices for many of the goods and services they consume.

Figure 1 The impact of a tariff

  • Inefficiency of resource allocation - the imposition of tariffs or other protection may not be the best solution. Firms may be able to shelter behind the tariff wall and remain inefficient. They may not have an incentive to reduce costs and become fully globally competitive if they believe that the tariffs will continue. This will be true also where infant industries are protected. If the tariffs remain in the long-term, the infant industry may never 'grow-up'. Firms operating with higher costs may be unable to achieve export competitiveness. In short, resources will not be allocated to their most efficient uses.
  • Bureaucracy - many protectionist measures are very bureaucratic to enforce. This is likely to reduce choice for domestic consumers and perhaps lead to possible corruption and other administrative costs. These will not be beneficial for the economy.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Climate Change

 

We started our discussions on this important topic last year and so I hope many of you have already started to think about how your country will develop and remain true to its citizens. That is, will current development actually leave huge costs for those who follow to pay? If so, how will we address these issues?

Some notes and presentations are already on the site and they could form part of your pre-reading.

 

I hope the above is useful and allows you to begin to think about the topics we will discuss in April.

My bst wishes,

 

John

 

4th March 2009.

 

 

 

 

REVIEW OF 2008:  PODCAST

 

 

 

 

An introduction

 

 I have been asked to write a weekly podcast which will be of use to those who are part of The British Council InterAction Programme. This programme works with young potential leaders in nineteen African countries. It is hoped that by offering both oral and written forms of the podcast that those logging on will be able to both read the text and download an oral version onto their MP 3 players. Sometimes the text version will appear a few days before the oral, as it takes a few hours to sit before a tape recorder and record the commentary - apologies.

 

Zimbabweans will find that my work with Melody on Climate Change also appears on this site. We hope to develop this work when I visit Zimbabwe in April 2009. Other resources which will be of use to those meeting me in April will also appear. These will include:

* Economic Development  

* Food Security

* Globalisation

* Green Business

 

The final arrangements for my visit from 7th April till 19th April are now close to a satisfactory conclusion. Once they have been agreed I will post the lecture and workshop schedule.

 

At present I am due to visit Bulawayo, Harare and Mutare.

 

 

The first oral podcast is available at the foot of this first page and others will follow. Please feel free to comment on any of the items mentioned and you can always email me at:

 

john_birchall@bsc.biblio.net

 

 

 

John

 

 

Africa - Weekly News

 

 Each week I will publish a weekly news. This will focus in matters relevant to Africa. It does not replace the weekly Letter from an Economist, which is also relevant to Africa but is not specifically written for readers resident on that continent.

 

Please comment on all you read and download. It would also help if you told me of specifc issues you would like me to include. For those of you who visit the Interaction site I would suggest that you might like to explore the Resources Section, where I have posted a number of courses and special articles.

 

The Leadership Programme front page has links to all the materials I have written for the site since April 2008. 

 

Please tell others you meet or work with of this free resource. They are welcome to download and use the materials.

 

The InterAction Programme has been a noticeable success but we do need to both keep in touch and develop our awareness of the events that will shape the environment within which you will make decisions. 

 

 

Text Version of Edition 1 - 12th December 2008

 

PODCAST

 

Text Version of Edition 2 - 15th December 2008

 

PODCAST

 

Text Version - Edition 3 - 22nd December 2008

Alas, I can no longer find the text version of this edition in my files, so only a written version will be available. 

 

Text Version - Edition 4 - 13th January 2009

 

Text Version - Edition 5 - 14th January 2009

The podcast version of this edition of the 'News' is shorter than the text version, apologies but the length of the analysis did not allow me time to record all the details.

 

Text Version - Edition 6 - 23rd January2009

 

Text Version- Edition 7 - 28th January 2009

 

Text Version - Edition 8 -  1st February 2009

 

Text Version - Edition 9 - 10th February 2009

 

Text Version - Edition 10 - 1st March 2009 - technical problems mean that this edition appears in full below - apologies.

 

 

 

 

Other articles of interest

 

 The following podcast looks at the review of good governance that was conducted by Harvard University(Department of Government) and analyses the findings.

 

New: Text Version only - Podcast Africa - end of year report 12/12/08

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7856157.stm - an interesting article on Darwin' disgust with slavery.

 

 

Audio Version Africa - end of year report 12/12/08

 

 Text Version of AID and AFRICA

 

Because of the length of this article the text version only is available. If you have any questions or comments on the content of the article please use the comment section at the foot of the front page.

 

The Euroepan Union 

 

As many of you will know I regularly work with The Euroepan Union. In this section I will post resources which may be of use in answering papers and questions that deal with the workings of the EU. Beacause of the size of these presentations they appear in power point format only.

 

The Euro - 2009

 

Data of Sustainability of Euro

 

The Regional Policy of EU

 

The Regional Policy of EU (2)

 

Single Currency

 

External Relationseu_external_relations_global_player.ppt

 

Evolution of EUCity of London - Evolution of EU.ppt

 

Sustainability of EMU

 

The Single Market

Regional Policy - 24th March 2009 - Charles White

Single Market - 24th March 2009 - John Wyles

EMU (NBB) - 25th March 2009 - Luc Lagae

 

 

 

 Letter from an Economist

 

 

Text Version - Letter from an Economist - 18th September 2008.

 

PODCAST

 

Text Version - Letter from an Economist - 23rd September 2008  

 

PODCAST

 

Text Version - Letter from an Economist - 27th September 2008   

 

PODCAST

 

Text Version - Letter from an Economist - 20th October 2008.   

 

PODCAST

 

Text Version - L etter from an Economist - 29th October 2008.  

 

PODCAST

 

Text Version - Letter from an Economist - 2nd November 2008. 

 

PODCAST

 

Text Version - Letter froman Economist - 10th November 2008. 

 

PODCAST

 

Text Version - Letter from an Economist - 17th December 2008

 

Text Version - Letter from an Economist - 13th January 2009

 

Text Version - Letter from an Economist - 19th January 2009

 

Text Version - Letter from an Economist - 28th January 2009.

 

Text Version - Letter from an Economist - 1st February 2009

 

 A sample Letter fom an Economist - 1st December 2008.

 

Each week I write a short 'letter' which is my opinion on a recent event - looked at through the eyes of an economist. The following can be read, copied and listened to.

 

 Click here to download as a WORD document

 

 

Click here listen to this letter as a Podcast.

 

 Letter from an Economist – 1st December 2008. An example of a Letter from an Economist 

 

Did we see it coming?

 

  In Ministries and Board Rooms across the globe people are asking themselves one question, ‘why did we fail to see the credit crunch coming?’ This is rather interesting for as recently as the late 1990’s the ‘dot.com bubble’ had some characteristics that were apparent in the lead-up to the current crisis and to be fair many an A level candidate could have foretold the problems that would arise as house prices spiralled out of control.

It is also not a defence to suggest that the western economic system is ‘resilient’ to such shocks, for in 1998 it was the collapse of just one hedge fund, Long Term Capital Management that caused a major panic throughout financial markets across the globe. Why did we not learn from a decade of Japan’s Central Bank trying to breathe some life into the world’s second largest economy and to be fair failing? All of these were well reported and analysed at the time and yet those in authority did little, if anything, to address the main causal factors and in so doing let the disease become benign but it was not eradicated.

It might be that none of those in power and with influence wanted to deliver bad news. A housing boom is good for the wealth factor, bankers make money and dividends flow in to pension funds. In dealing rooms across the world a frenzy of derivative sales resulted and markets boomed, so who would have wanted to be the representative of the ‘dismal science’ and say that bad times were coming?

Neither do I think complacency can be used as an excuse – the signs were there – how could we have failed to note failings emerging in the modern post-deregulation financial system? Within these markets were clear signs of high levels of leverage and large sums of capital chasing returns across the globe.

Neither of the two crises noted above actually turned out to be as serious as first thought and this may also have led to some officials feeling that initial interpretations of both crises had been too pessimistic.

 The second ‘Great Crash’ did not materialise and so Greenspan and others could continue with their de-regulation era unopposed and free to remove controls over markets not noted for their ability to keep to rules.

 We are moving through the worst crisis in living memory and we are waiting to see if more aggressive and intrusive actions by various Central Banks and some governments will deliver stability to the financial markets. It remains to be seen if these essentially short-term actions will persuade the authorities to actually look at the long-term fault lines that exist within the markets. If they do, then the obvious failings of the financial system will need to be addressed and the ‘shadow banking system’ which emerged in the late 1990’s and the first part of this decade more controlled and regulated. We have to remember that once stability is achieved then the same people who brought about this crisis will be free to start again! If we are to have really learnt from the crisis and its causes then the global financial system has to be strictly regulated.

 If Obama does want to deliver true change then financial reform is essential and Gordon Brown also needs to think beyond our election cycle and address the fundamental causes of an economic downturn that still has some bad news to report.

 

 Amongst Friends

 

This monthly magazine has been written for the InterAction site, which can be found at: http://www.bc-interaction.org and was first published in April 2008. Since then a wide range of topics have been covered. The following are a selection of those used for this column. The column will continue until March 2009 and maybe beyond. The InterAction Programme has now widened its coverage and includes specialist sessions for 'leaders'.

 

Text version - October 2008

 

PODCAST Version of October edition

 

Text Edition - January 2009(Edition 1)

Text Edition - January 2009 (Edition 2)

 

Text Version - February 2009(Edition 1)

 

Because of the length of these editions I cannot record them into PODCAST format but a visit to www.http://www.bc-interaction.org/ will allow you read, copy and keep copies. Within each edition are notes on topics relevant to both the Strategic Leaders and Trust the Difference courses.

 

Text Edition - January 2009 (Edition 2)

 

 The British Council - InterAction Programme

 

Strategic Leaders

 

Some resources you may find useful as you begin to think and work towards your meetings

 

Those who wish to lead, in whichever field they work, will have to prioritise. For Africans this can be a daunting task. In the coming weeks I will be posting resources that might help you as you decide what you would wish to concentrate on and how you might achieve your objectives.

 

To start you thinking I have posted part of an article i wrote some years ago. It is about child health - an important topic in Africa and one which clearly illustrates the difficulty of deciding on an objective and then discovering just how many decisions will need to be made if your original target is to achieved. It might serve as a topic for conversation, which we can now do via the podcast and the comment section at the bottom of this front page.

 

Text of helping children to be peer health educators

 

The oral version will not appear until after Christmas.

 

You might like to read and listen to this article and think about you would address its ambitious objectives if it were part of your resposibility to create such a system in your own country

 

SWOT AnalysisText of some materials on both SWOT and PESTLE

 

This topic is too long for an oral podcast but please ask for more deatils if you would like some.

 

An introduction

Some of the challenges

An introductory course in globalisation

Extra materials in power point format

 

 

Economic Development

An introduction

An overview of economic development - 2008

The role of Multi-National Corporations(MNC's)

Extra materials in power point format

Some data ready for our discussions

 

Blogs worth visiting

http://www.cgdev.org/section/opinions/blogs/

http://blogs.odi.org.uk/blogs/main/

http://www.devex.com/blogs/252/blogs_entries

 

Green Business 

Green Business  A Case Study

 

Blogs worth visiting

 http://blog.businessgreen.com/

An excellent blog dedicated to green business.

http://www.businessgreen.com/business-green/news/2228618/biggest-sub-saharan-wind-farm

An interesting article on AFrica's largest wind farm

http://www.greenbusinessafrica.com/

An excellent site dedicated to green business across Africa

http://www.africabusinessnews.com/

A site with some news of the latest green business initiatives in Africa

http://greenafricafoundation.org/

The green Africa site, it has some excellent artciles on how the continent can both develop and yet be 'green'.

 

Food Sustainability and Security

The main issue here is to increase the productivity of 420 million small-scale farmers who farm LESS than 2 hectares. 

A brief introduction

 

Some articles on food securityand web sites worth bookmarking

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7850210.stm

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7851531.stm

http://www.un.org/issues/food/taskforce/index.shtml

http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/en/

http://www.ifad.org/operations/food/

http://www.un.org/special-rep/ohrlls/ohrlls/aboutus.htm

http://www.unep.org/

http://wfp.org/english/?ModuleID=137&Key=2797

http://www.un.org/issues/food/taskforce/pdf/Madrid.pdf

http://www.unpei.org/programmes/africaprofiles.asp

http://www.unep.org/health-env/

 

Blogs to visit 

http://gosustainable.blogspot.com/

Columbia University, New York

http://wordpress.com/tag/food-sustainability/

Wide-ranging site that includes posts on food sustainability

http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2006/3/21/954/50698

A site that looks at food sustainability and the environment 

 

Climate Change

 

Melody and I are working towards my visit and we hope tp post useful resources and a regular podcast which will tell you how the project is developing.

 

The following is a detailed power point presentation on Africa nd Climate Change. It formed the main part of a presentation I gave in Harare in April 2008.

 

The British Council in Zimbabwe has embarked on a Climate Change Program in parternship with UNESCO under the title 'Our Climate, Our Future'.  Our main aims are to: 

  1. raise awareness of what Climate Change is and create a demand for action by the powers that be;

  2. support relationships and networks which lead to action on Climate Change mitigation and adaptation;

  3. match and adapt materials to a local context by adding context-specific information; and

  4. adopt a medium of delivery to suit the needs and expectations of local context 

 

This is meant to be done through three distinct phases, namely the awareness, implementation and lobbying phaes.  The first phase which is currently in the initial stages will be launched next week at the First Stakeholders Meeting on Climate Change.  Participants are from ministerial bodies, parastataals, non-governmental organizations as well as academia.

 

 

Africa and Climate Change

 

Global Warming - an update

 

Climate change - the case of China

 

Educating children in Mauritius

 

 

Some blogs worth visiting for general information on current events

 http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/

Robert Preston, BBC Business Editor. He is known for breaking stories before most of his colleagues

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/stephanieflanders/

Stephanie Flanders, BBC Economics Editor

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/richardblack/

Richard Black, BBC Environment Editor

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/markmardell/

Mark Mardell, BBC Europe Editor

 

 

Future Resources

 

In January 2009 John will be launching a comprehensive series of notes, questions and other resources on the PhilipAllan/Updates site, which is part of the international publishers Hodder and Stoughton's web-based learning facilities.

 

John's own site can be visited at: www.johnbirchall-economist.com where a range of resources and other items of interest are available. Amongst those that might be of interest to InterAction members are:

 

Building Self Confidence

 

 

Conflict Resolution

 

 

Developing Personal skills

 

 

Developing Value Systems

 

 

Leadership Training

 

 

Strategic Thinking

 

 

Critical Thinking

 

 Identity

 

 

Multiculturalism

 

Democracy

 

Rights

 

 Politics and Pluralism

 

http://www.unep.org/health-env/

 

 

 

 

The World Trade Organisation

 

The case for WTO

 http://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/whatis_e/10ben_e/10b00_e.htm

The case against the WTO

 

http://www.poptel.org.uk/panap/latest/wto10.htm

 

Types of Protectionism

Tariffs

A tariff is a tax on imports, which can either be specific (so much per unit of sale) or ad valorem (a percentage of the price of the product). Tariffs reduce supply and raise the price of imports. This gives domestic equivalents a comparative advantage. As such tariffs are distorting the market forces and may prevent consumers from gaining the benefit of all the advantages of international specialisation and trade. The impact of a tariff is shown in figure 1 below.

 

Figure 1 Impact of a tariff

The tariff has the effect of shifting the world supply curve vertically upwards by the amount of the tariff. The level of imports will fall from QaQd to QbQc. The government will also raise revenue, shown by the blue shaded area. The level of domestic production will increase from 0Qa to 0Qb.

 

Quotas

Quotas have the effect of restricting the maximum amount of imports allowed into an economy. Once again they reduce the amount of imports entering an economy and increase the equilibrium price within the market. The government receives no revenue from a quota, as it does with a tariff, unless it can set up a system of licences.

Exchange control

The government could limit the amount of foreign currency available for paying for imports. These are not allowed amongst member states of the European Union (EU), for example, and have become more difficult to sustain in a world of highly mobile capital.

Export subsidies

Export subsidies allow exporters to supply the market with more product than the natural equilibrium would have allowed. Foreign consumers will enjoy increased economic welfare as the price of their purchases fall. Domestic employees might enjoy more wages and job security. But taxpayers are footing the bill for this. Domestic firms might divert trade into exports and ignore the home market. This could lead to increases in domestic prices.

The impact of a subsidy is shown in figure 2. The supply curve is shifted vertically downwards by the amount of the subsidy and this leads to a lower equilibrium price and a higher quantity being traded.

Figure 2 The effect of a subsidy

These 'expenditure-switching' polices are normally not allowed under membership conditions of both the WTO and EU.

Voluntary export restraints (VER's)

Some quotas are voluntarily agreed between countries. This happened on a significant number of occasions with Japanese firms (e.g. cars, televisions, videos) during the 1990s. Where the quotas have been agreed, they are known as Voluntary Export Restraints (VER's). In fact over 200 VER's were in force in the early 1990s. So why did the firms agree to these restrictions voluntarily? Well the answers to this are varied. Often it may have been because they felt it would help avoid more punitive restrictions, but sometimes it was in their interests. Where the Japanese firms had a significant cost advantage over the domestic producers, the voluntary quotas meant that they could charge significantly higher prices. The higher margins they earned more than made up for the restricted number they sold and profitability was maintained or improved.

Other protectionist measures

Countries can also use a range of other protectionist measures to restrict imports. These might include:

  • Administrative obstacles - countries can set administrative hurdles. For example, they may require significant levels of paperwork and then deal with these processes slowly making it difficult for importers to compete on a level playing field with other firms.
  • Health and safety standards - countries may set onerously high health and safety standards for goods that are imported, once again making life difficult for importers.
  • Environmental standards - countries can set high environmental standards that they know only domestic firms are likely to be able to achieve, once again making life difficult for importers.

The case for protectionism

 

So, why do some governments still protect trade? The main reasons include:

  • To safeguard domestic employment - as protectionist polices reduce import penetration. In terms of the identity AD = C + I + G + (X-M), the lower is M, the greater will be aggregate demand and thus the higher the level of domestic output and employment.
  • To correct balance of payments disequilibrium - as demand for imports is dampened and exports promoted. This makes the domestic output appear to be competitive as the most common policy used is a deliberate depreciation of the domestic currency.
  • To prevent labour exploitation in developing economies - this is really a moral argument as it rests on making imports more accurately reflect their true cost of production. However, it might also reduce imports from some of the poorest economies in the world.
  • To prevent dumping - which is where economies sell goods in overseas markets at a price below the cost of production. Domestic consumers pay more than those buying overseas. Such low prices are part of a policy to destroy rivals in exports markets.
  • To safeguard infant industries - as shifts in comparative advantages arise so some countries become able to enter new markets. Their fledgling industry needs some protection from the power of already established competitors.
  • To enable a developing country to diversify - this is similar to the infant industries argument. Many developing countries are heavily dependent exports of primary commodities. This can leave them very exposed to changes in international commodity prices. If they want to diversify and develop new export revenue streams, they may need to protect these new industries from full exposure to international competition for a while.
  • Source of government revenue - where protectionism takes the form of a tariff, apart from reducing demand for imports via the impact of a higher price, this will also raise revenue for the government, like any other tax. The revenue raising function will be most successful where the demand for imports is price inelastic.
  • Strategic arguments - a particular product or industry might be of strategic importance to a country e.g. agriculture or coal, and protectionism may be justified on the grounds that it is keeping alive an industry which plays a vital part in the economy perhaps because of social, political or military reasons 

The case against protectionism

  • Downward multiplier effects - if a country successfully protects against imports, this will reduce the level of imports. However, one country's imports are another country's exports and this reduction in exports will lead to a multiplied effect. This may even reduce demand for exports from the country that raised the protectionist measures in the first place, but will certainly reduce world output.
  • Retaliation - any protectionist measure tends to be instantly met with some form of retaliation. This will tend to mean that any success in protecting against imports leads to a fall in exports when the retaliation starts to bite.
  • Costs - tariffs (and other protectionist measures) tend to lead to a cost on society. If we look at the tariff diagram in figure 1 below we can see that the tariff leads to a reduction in imports. Some of the benefits from the reduced imports are passed to domestic firms in the form of higher prices and the government in the form of revenue, but the triangles either side of the blue shaded area represent a welfare cost to society. Consumers will be paying higher prices for many of the goods and services they consume.

Figure 1 The impact of a tariff

  • Inefficiency of resource allocation - the imposition of tariffs or other protection may not be the best solution. Firms may be able to shelter behind the tariff wall and remain inefficient. They may not have an incentive to reduce costs and become fully globally competitive if they believe that the tariffs will continue. This will be true also where infant industries are protected. If the tariffs remain in the long-term, the infant industry may never 'grow-up'. Firms operating with higher costs may be unable to achieve export competitiveness. In short, resources will not be allocated to their most efficient uses.
  • Bureaucracy - many protectionist measures are very bureaucratic to enforce. This is likely to reduce choice for domestic consumers and perhaps lead to possible corruption and other administrative costs. These will not be beneficial for the economy.

 

Challenges etc

 

Another major theme I would like to address is that of what challenges will leaders face as this century unfolds.

I would like us to consider:

 

1. Global changes and interdepence

2. The hopes of previous generations and their achievments

3. The hopes and fears of those hoping to lead in the future

4. The qualities needed for leading in an environment of constant change.

 

 

Food sustainability and green business

 

Though I will not be directly addresing these important issues I would like to include them in all of our deliberations. So, please start to think about HOW your country can improve its ability to feed its citizens. Also, what policies need to be adopted to make agriculture and industry more aware of their responsibility to future generations and their environment?

These will encourgae to look to the future aware of the trade - offs that will face all who lead, make decisions and apply these to all sections of the economy.

 

Climate Change

 

We started our discussions on this important topic last year and so I hope many of you have already started to think about how your country will develop and remain true to its citizens. That is, will current development actually leave huge costs for those who follow to pay? If so, how will we address these issues?

Some notes and presentations are already on the site and they could form part of your pre-reading.

 

I hope the above is useful and allows you to begin to think about the topics we will discuss in April.

My bst wishes,

 

John

 

4th March 2009.

 

 

 

 

REVIEW OF 2008:  PODCAST

 

 

 

 

An introduction

 

 I have been asked to write a weekly podcast which will be of use to those who are part of The British Council InterAction Programme. This programme works with young potential leaders in nineteen African countries. It is hoped that by offering both oral and written forms of the podcast that those logging on will be able to both read the text and download an oral version onto their MP 3 players. Sometimes the text version will appear a few days before the oral, as it takes a few hours to sit before a tape recorder and record the commentary - apologies.

 

Zimbabweans will find that my work with Melody on Climate Change also appears on this site. We hope to develop this work when I visit Zimbabwe in April 2009. Other resources which will be of use to those meeting me in April will also appear. These will include:

* Economic Development  

* Food Security

* Globalisation

* Green Business

 

The final arrangements for my visit from 7th April till 19th April are now close to a satisfactory conclusion. Once they have been agreed I will post the lecture and workshop schedule.

 

At present I am due to visit Bulawayo, Harare and Mutare.

 

 

The first oral podcast is available at the foot of this first page and others will follow. Please feel free to comment on any of the items mentioned and you can always email me at:

 

john_birchall@bsc.biblio.net

 

 

 

John

 

 

Africa - Weekly News

 

 Each week I will publish a weekly news. This will focus in matters relevant to Africa. It does not replace the weekly Letter from an Economist, which is also relevant to Africa but is not specifically written for readers resident on that continent.

 

Please comment on all you read and download. It would also help if you told me of specifc issues you would like me to include. For those of you who visit the Interaction site I would suggest that you might like to explore the Resources Section, where I have posted a number of courses and special articles.

 

The Leadership Programme front page has links to all the materials I have written for the site since April 2008. 

 

Please tell others you meet or work with of this free resource. They are welcome to download and use the materials.

 

The InterAction Programme has been a noticeable success but we do need to both keep in touch and develop our awareness of the events that will shape the environment within which you will make decisions. 

 

 

Text Version of Edition 1 - 12th December 2008

 

PODCAST

 

Text Version of Edition 2 - 15th December 2008

 

PODCAST

 

Text Version - Edition 3 - 22nd December 2008

Alas, I can no longer find the text version of this edition in my files, so only a written version will be available. 

 

Text Version - Edition 4 - 13th January 2009

 

Text Version - Edition 5 - 14th January 2009

The podcast version of this edition of the 'News' is shorter than the text version, apologies but the length of the analysis did not allow me time to record all the details.

 

Text Version - Edition 6 - 23rd January2009

 

Text Version- Edition 7 - 28th January 2009

 

Text Version - Edition 8 -  1st February 2009

 

Text Version - Edition 9 - 10th February 2009

 

Text Version - Edition 10 - 1st March 2009 - technical problems mean that this edition appears in full below - apologies.

 

 

 

 

Other articles of interest

 

 The following podcast looks at the review of good governance that was conducted by Harvard University(Department of Government) and analyses the findings.

 

New: Text Version only - Podcast Africa - end of year report 12/12/08

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7856157.stm - an interesting article on Darwin' disgust with slavery.

 

 

Audio Version Africa - end of year report 12/12/08

 

 Text Version of AID and AFRICA

 

Because of the length of this article the text version only is available. If you have any questions or comments on the content of the article please use the comment section at the foot of the front page.

 

 

 

 

 

 

  Letter from an Economist

 

 

Text Version - Letter from an Economist - 18th September 2008.

 

PODCAST

 

Text Version - Letter from an Economist - 23rd September 2008  

 

PODCAST

 

Text Version - Letter from an Economist - 27th September 2008   

 

PODCAST

 

Text Version - Letter from an Economist - 20th October 2008.   

 

PODCAST

 

Text Version - L etter from an Economist - 29th October 2008.  

 

PODCAST

 

Text Version - Letter from an Economist - 2nd November 2008. 

 

PODCAST

 

Text Version - Letter froman Economist - 10th November 2008. 

 

PODCAST

 

Text Version - Letter from an Economist - 17th December 2008

 

Text Version - Letter from an Economist - 13th January 2009

 

Text Version - Letter from an Economist - 19th January 2009

 

Text Version - Letter from an Economist - 28th January 2009.

 

Text Version - Letter from an Economist - 1st February 2009

 

 A sample Letter fom an Economist - 1st December 2008.

 

Each week I write a short 'letter' which is my opinion on a recent event - looked at through the eyes of an economist. The following can be read, copied and listened to.

 

 Click here to download as a WORD document

 

 

Click here listen to this letter as a Podcast.

 

 Letter from an Economist – 1st December 2008. An example of a Letter from an Economist 

 

Did we see it coming?

 

  In Ministries and Board Rooms across the globe people are asking themselves one question, ‘why did we fail to see the credit crunch coming?’ This is rather interesting for as recently as the late 1990’s the ‘dot.com bubble’ had some characteristics that were apparent in the lead-up to the current crisis and to be fair many an A level candidate could have foretold the problems that would arise as house prices spiralled out of control.

It is also not a defence to suggest that the western economic system is ‘resilient’ to such shocks, for in 1998 it was the collapse of just one hedge fund, Long Term Capital Management that caused a major panic throughout financial markets across the globe. Why did we not learn from a decade of Japan’s Central Bank trying to breathe some life into the world’s second largest economy and to be fair failing? All of these were well reported and analysed at the time and yet those in authority did little, if anything, to address the main causal factors and in so doing let the disease become benign but it was not eradicated.

It might be that none of those in power and with influence wanted to deliver bad news. A housing boom is good for the wealth factor, bankers make money and dividends flow in to pension funds. In dealing rooms across the world a frenzy of derivative sales resulted and markets boomed, so who would have wanted to be the representative of the ‘dismal science’ and say that bad times were coming?

Neither do I think complacency can be used as an excuse – the signs were there – how could we have failed to note failings emerging in the modern post-deregulation financial system? Within these markets were clear signs of high levels of leverage and large sums of capital chasing returns across the globe.

Neither of the two crises noted above actually turned out to be as serious as first thought and this may also have led to some officials feeling that initial interpretations of both crises had been too pessimistic.

 The second ‘Great Crash’ did not materialise and so Greenspan and others could continue with their de-regulation era unopposed and free to remove controls over markets not noted for their ability to keep to rules.

 We are moving through the worst crisis in living memory and we are waiting to see if more aggressive and intrusive actions by various Central Banks and some governments will deliver stability to the financial markets. It remains to be seen if these essentially short-term actions will persuade the authorities to actually look at the long-term fault lines that exist within the markets. If they do, then the obvious failings of the financial system will need to be addressed and the ‘shadow banking system’ which emerged in the late 1990’s and the first part of this decade more controlled and regulated. We have to remember that once stability is achieved then the same people who brought about this crisis will be free to start again! If we are to have really learnt from the crisis and its causes then the global financial system has to be strictly regulated.

 If Obama does want to deliver true change then financial reform is essential and Gordon Brown also needs to think beyond our election cycle and address the fundamental causes of an economic downturn that still has some bad news to report.

 

 Amongst Friends

 

This monthly magazine has been written for the InterAction site, which can be found at: http://www.bc-interaction.org and was first published in April 2008. Since then a wide range of topics have been covered. The following are a selection of those used for this column. The column will continue until March 2009 and maybe beyond. The InterAction Programme has now widened its coverage and includes specialist sessions for 'leaders'.

 

Text version - October 2008

 

PODCAST Version of October edition

 

Text Edition - January 2009(Edition 1)

Text Edition - January 2009 (Edition 2)

 

Text Version - February 2009(Edition 1)

 

Because of the length of these editions I cannot record them into PODCAST format but a visit to www.http://www.bc-interaction.org/ will allow you read, copy and keep copies. Within each edition are notes on topics relevant to both the Strategic Leaders and Trust the Difference courses.

 

Text Edition - January 2009 (Edition 2)

 

 The British Council - InterAction Programme

 

Strategic Leaders

 

Some resources you may find useful as you begin to think and work towards your meetings

 

Those who wish to lead, in whichever field they work, will have to prioritise. For Africans this can be a daunting task. In the coming weeks I will be posting resources that might help you as you decide what you would wish to concentrate on and how you might achieve your objectives.

 

To start you thinking I have posted part of an article i wrote some years ago. It is about child health - an important topic in Africa and one which clearly illustrates the difficulty of deciding on an objective and then discovering just how many decisions will need to be made if your original target is to achieved. It might serve as a topic for conversation, which we can now do via the podcast and the comment section at the bottom of this front page.

 

Text of helping children to be peer health educators

 

The oral version will not appear until after Christmas.

 

You might like to read and listen to this article and think about you would address its ambitious objectives if it were part of your resposibility to create such a system in your own country

 

SWOT AnalysisText of some materials on both SWOT and PESTLE

 

This topic is too long for an oral podcast but please ask for more deatils if you would like some.

 

An introduction

Some of the challenges

An introductory course in globalisation

Extra materials in power point format

 

 

Economic Development

An introduction

An overview of economic development - 2008

The role of Multi-National Corporations(MNC's)

Extra materials in power point format

Some data ready for our discussions

 

Blogs worth visiting

http://www.cgdev.org/section/opinions/blogs/

http://blogs.odi.org.uk/blogs/main/

http://www.devex.com/blogs/252/blogs_entries

 

Green Business 

Green Business  A Case Study

 

Blogs worth visiting

 http://blog.businessgreen.com/

An excellent blog dedicated to green business.

http://www.businessgreen.com/business-green/news/2228618/biggest-sub-saharan-wind-farm

An interesting article on AFrica's largest wind farm

http://www.greenbusinessafrica.com/

An excellent site dedicated to green business across Africa

http://www.africabusinessnews.com/

A site with some news of the latest green business initiatives in Africa

http://greenafricafoundation.org/

The green Africa site, it has some excellent artciles on how the continent can both develop and yet be 'green'.

 

Food Sustainability and Security

The main issue here is to increase the productivity of 420 million small-scale farmers who farm LESS than 2 hectares. 

A brief introduction

 

Some articles on food securityand web sites worth bookmarking

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7850210.stm

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7851531.stm

http://www.un.org/issues/food/taskforce/index.shtml

http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/en/

http://www.ifad.org/operations/food/

http://www.un.org/special-rep/ohrlls/ohrlls/aboutus.htm

http://www.unep.org/

http://wfp.org/english/?ModuleID=137&Key=2797

http://www.un.org/issues/food/taskforce/pdf/Madrid.pdf

http://www.unpei.org/programmes/africaprofiles.asp

http://www.unep.org/health-env/

 

Blogs to visit 

http://gosustainable.blogspot.com/

Columbia University, New York

http://wordpress.com/tag/food-sustainability/

Wide-ranging site that includes posts on food sustainability

http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2006/3/21/954/50698

A site that looks at food sustainability and the environment 

 

Climate Change

 

Melody and I are working towards my visit and we hope tp post useful resources and a regular podcast which will tell you how the project is developing.

 

The following is a detailed power point presentation on Africa nd Climate Change. It formed the main part of a presentation I gave in Harare in April 2008.

 

The British Council in Zimbabwe has embarked on a Climate Change Program in parternship with UNESCO under the title 'Our Climate, Our Future'.  Our main aims are to: 

  1. raise awareness of what Climate Change is and create a demand for action by the powers that be;

  2. support relationships and networks which lead to action on Climate Change mitigation and adaptation;

  3. match and adapt materials to a local context by adding context-specific information; and

  4. adopt a medium of delivery to suit the needs and expectations of local context 

 

This is meant to be done through three distinct phases, namely the awareness, implementation and lobbying phaes.  The first phase which is currently in the initial stages will be launched next week at the First Stakeholders Meeting on Climate Change.  Participants are from ministerial bodies, parastataals, non-governmental organizations as well as academia.

 

 

Africa and Climate Change

 

Global Warming - an update

 

Climate change - the case of China

 

Educating children in Mauritius

 

 

Some blogs worth visiting for general information on current events

 http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/

Robert Preston, BBC Business Editor. He is known for breaking stories before most of his colleagues

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/stephanieflanders/

Stephanie Flanders, BBC Economics Editor

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/richardblack/

Richard Black, BBC Environment Editor

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/markmardell/

Mark Mardell, BBC Europe Editor

 

 

Future Resources

 

In January 2009 John will be launching a comprehensive series of notes, questions and other resources on the PhilipAllan/Updates site, which is part of the international publishers Hodder and Stoughton's web-based learning facilities.

 

John's own site can be visited at: www.johnbirchall-economist.com where a range of resources and other items of interest are available. Amongst those that might be of interest to InterAction members are:

 

Building Self Confidence

 

 

Conflict Resolution

 

 

Developing Personal skills

 

 

Developing Value Systems

 

 

Leadership Training

 

 

Strategic Thinking

 

 

Critical Thinking

 

 Identity

 

 

Multiculturalism

 

Democracy

 

Rights

 

 Politics and Pluralism

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

http://www.unep.org/health-env/

 

 

 

 

.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Developing Personal skills

 

 

Developing Value Systems

 

 

Leadership Training

 

 

Strategic Thinking

 

 

Critical Thinking

 

 Identity

 

 

Multiculturalism

 

Democracy

 

Rights

 

 Politics and Pluralism

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

http://www.unep.org/health-env/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

 

The World Trade Organisation

 

The case for WTO

 http://www.wto.org/english/thewto_e/whatis_e/10ben_e/10b00_e.htm

The case against the WTO

 

http://www.poptel.org.uk/panap/latest/wto10.htm

 

Types of Protectionism

Tariffs

A tariff is a tax on imports, which can either be specific (so much per unit of sale) or ad valorem (a percentage of the price of the product). Tariffs reduce supply and raise the price of imports. This gives domestic equivalents a comparative advantage. As such tariffs are distorting the market forces and may prevent consumers from gaining the benefit of all the advantages of international specialisation and trade. The impact of a tariff is shown in figure 1 below.

 

Figure 1 Impact of a tariff

The tariff has the effect of shifting the world supply curve vertically upwards by the amount of the tariff. The level of imports will fall from QaQd to QbQc. The government will also raise revenue, shown by the blue shaded area. The level of domestic production will increase from 0Qa to 0Qb.

 

Quotas

Quotas have the effect of restricting the maximum amount of imports allowed into an economy. Once again they reduce the amount of imports entering an economy and increase the equilibrium price within the market. The government receives no revenue from a quota, as it does with a tariff, unless it can set up a system of licences.

Exchange control

The government could limit the amount of foreign currency available for paying for imports. These are not allowed amongst member states of the European Union (EU), for example, and have become more difficult to sustain in a world of highly mobile capital.

Export subsidies

Export subsidies allow exporters to supply the market with more product than the natural equilibrium would have allowed. Foreign consumers will enjoy increased economic welfare as the price of their purchases fall. Domestic employees might enjoy more wages and job security. But taxpayers are footing the bill for this. Domestic firms might divert trade into exports and ignore the home market. This could lead to increases in domestic prices.

The impact of a subsidy is shown in figure 2. The supply curve is shifted vertically downwards by the amount of the subsidy and this leads to a lower equilibrium price and a higher quantity being traded.

Figure 2 The effect of a subsidy

These 'expenditure-switching' polices are normally not allowed under membership conditions of both the WTO and EU.

Voluntary export restraints (VER's)

Some quotas are voluntarily agreed between countries. This happened on a significant number of occasions with Japanese firms (e.g. cars, televisions, videos) during the 1990s. Where the quotas have been agreed, they are known as Voluntary Export Restraints (VER's). In fact over 200 VER's were in force in the early 1990s. So why did the firms agree to these restrictions voluntarily? Well the answers to this are varied. Often it may have been because they felt it would help avoid more punitive restrictions, but sometimes it was in their interests. Where the Japanese firms had a significant cost advantage over the domestic producers, the voluntary quotas meant that they could charge significantly higher prices. The higher margins they earned more than made up for the restricted number they sold and profitability was maintained or improved.

Other protectionist measures

Countries can also use a range of other protectionist measures to restrict imports. These might include:

  • Administrative obstacles - countries can set administrative hurdles. For example, they may require significant levels of paperwork and then deal with these processes slowly making it difficult for importers to compete on a level playing field with other firms.
  • Health and safety standards - countries may set onerously high health and safety standards for goods that are imported, once again making life difficult for importers.
  • Environmental standards - countries can set high environmental standards that they know only domestic firms are likely to be able to achieve, once again making life difficult for importers.

The case for protectionism

 

So, why do some governments still protect trade? The main reasons include:

  • To safeguard domestic employment - as protectionist polices reduce import penetration. In terms of the identity AD = C + I + G + (X-M), the lower is M, the greater will be aggregate demand and thus the higher the level of domestic output and employment.
  • To correct balance of payments disequilibrium - as demand for imports is dampened and exports promoted. This makes the domestic output appear to be competitive as the most common policy used is a deliberate depreciation of the domestic currency.
  • To prevent labour exploitation in developing economies - this is really a moral argument as it rests on making imports more accurately reflect their true cost of production. However, it might also reduce imports from some of the poorest economies in the world.
  • To prevent dumping - which is where economies sell goods in overseas markets at a price below the cost of production. Domestic consumers pay more than those buying overseas. Such low prices are part of a policy to destroy rivals in exports markets.
  • To safeguard infant industries - as shifts in comparative advantages arise so some countries become able to enter new markets. Their fledgling industry needs some protection from the power of already established competitors.
  • To enable a developing country to diversify - this is similar to the infant industries argument. Many developing countries are heavily dependent exports of primary commodities. This can leave them very exposed to changes in international commodity prices. If they want to diversify and develop new export revenue streams, they may need to protect these new industries from full exposure to international competition for a while.
  • Source of government revenue - where protectionism takes the form of a tariff, apart from reducing demand for imports via the impact of a higher price, this will also raise revenue for the government, like any other tax. The revenue raising function will be most successful where the demand for imports is price inelastic.
  • Strategic arguments - a particular product or industry might be of strategic importance to a country e.g. agriculture or coal, and protectionism may be justified on the grounds that it is keeping alive an industry which plays a vital part in the economy perhaps because of social, political or military reasons 

The case against protectionism

  • Downward multiplier effects - if a country successfully protects against imports, this will reduce the level of imports. However, one country's imports are another country's exports and this reduction in exports will lead to a multiplied effect. This may even reduce demand for exports from the country that raised the protectionist measures in the first place, but will certainly reduce world output.
  • Retaliation - any protectionist measure tends to be instantly met with some form of retaliation. This will tend to mean that any success in protecting against imports leads to a fall in exports when the retaliation starts to bite.
  • Costs - tariffs (and other protectionist measures) tend to lead to a cost on society. If we look at the tariff diagram in figure 1 below we can see that the tariff leads to a reduction in imports. Some of the benefits from the reduced imports are passed to domestic firms in the form of higher prices and the government in the form of revenue, but the triangles either side of the blue shaded area represent a welfare cost to society. Consumers will be paying higher prices for many of the goods and services they consume.

Figure 1 The impact of a tariff

  • Inefficiency of resource allocation - the imposition of tariffs or other protection may not be the best solution. Firms may be able to shelter behind the tariff wall and remain inefficient. They may not have an incentive to reduce costs and become fully globally competitive if they believe that the tariffs will continue. This will be true also where infant industries are protected. If the tariffs remain in the long-term, the infant industry may never 'grow-up'. Firms operating with higher costs may be unable to achieve export competitiveness. In short, resources will not be allocated to their most efficient uses.
  • Bureaucracy - many protectionist measures are very bureaucratic to enforce. This is likely to reduce choice for domestic consumers and perhaps lead to possible corruption and other administrative costs. These will not be beneficial for the economy.

 

Challenges etc

 

Another major theme I would like to address is that of what challenges will leaders face as this century unfolds.

I would like us to consider:

 

1. Global changes and interdepence

2. The hopes of previous generations and their achievments

3. The hopes and fears of those hoping to lead in the future

4. The qualities needed for leading in an environment of constant change.

 

 

Food sustainability and green business

 

Though I will not be directly addresing these important issues I would like to include them in all of our deliberations. So, please start to think about HOW your country can improve its ability to feed its citizens. Also, what policies need to be adopted to make agriculture and industry more aware of their responsibility to future generations and their environment?

These will encourgae to look to the future aware of the trade - offs that will face all who lead, make decisions and apply these to all sections of the economy.

 

Climate Change

 

We started our discussions on this important topic last year and so I hope many of you have already started to think about how your country will develop and remain true to its citizens. That is, will current development actually leave huge costs for those who follow to pay? If so, how will we address these issues?

Some notes and presentations are already on the site and they could form part of your pre-reading.

 

I hope the above is useful and allows you to begin to think about the topics we will discuss in April.

My bst wishes,

 

John

 

4th March 2009.

 

 

 

 

REVIEW OF 2008:  PODCAST

 

 

 

 

An introduction

 

 I have been asked to write a weekly podcast which will be of use to those who are part of The British Council InterAction Programme. This programme works with young potential leaders in nineteen African countries. It is hoped that by offering both oral and written forms of the podcast that those logging on will be able to both read the text and download an oral version onto their MP 3 players. Sometimes the text version will appear a few days before the oral, as it takes a few hours to sit before a tape recorder and record the commentary - apologies.

 

Zimbabweans will find that my work with Melody on Climate Change also appears on this site. We hope to develop this work when I visit Zimbabwe in April 2009. Other resources which will be of use to those meeting me in April will also appear. These will include:

* Economic Development  

* Food Security

* Globalisation

* Green Business

 

The final arrangements for my visit from 7th April till 19th April are now close to a satisfactory conclusion. Once they have been agreed I will post the lecture and workshop schedule.

 

At present I am due to visit Bulawayo, Harare and Mutare.

 

 

The first oral podcast is available at the foot of this first page and others will follow. Please feel free to comment on any of the items mentioned and you can always email me at:

 

john_birchall@bsc.biblio.net

 

 

 

John

 

 

Africa - Weekly News

 

 Each week I will publish a weekly news. This will focus in matters relevant to Africa. It does not replace the weekly Letter from an Economist, which is also relevant to Africa but is not specifically written for readers resident on that continent.

 

Please comment on all you read and download. It would also help if you told me of specifc issues you would like me to include. For those of you who visit the Interaction site I would suggest that you might like to explore the Resources Section, where I have posted a number of courses and special articles.

 

The Leadership Programme front page has links to all the materials I have written for the site since April 2008. 

 

Please tell others you meet or work with of this free resource. They are welcome to download and use the materials.

 

The InterAction Programme has been a noticeable success but we do need to both keep in touch and develop our awareness of the events that will shape the environment within which you will make decisions. 

 

 

Text Version of Edition 1 - 12th December 2008

 

PODCAST

 

Text Version of Edition 2 - 15th December 2008

 

PODCAST

 

Text Version - Edition 3 - 22nd December 2008

Alas, I can no longer find the text version of this edition in my files, so only a written version will be available. 

 

Text Version - Edition 4 - 13th January 2009

 

Text Version - Edition 5 - 14th January 2009

The podcast version of this edition of the 'News' is shorter than the text version, apologies but the length of the analysis did not allow me time to record all the details.

 

Text Version - Edition 6 - 23rd January2009

 

Text Version- Edition 7 - 28th January 2009

 

Text Version - Edition 8 -  1st February 2009

 

Text Version - Edition 9 - 10th February 2009

 

Text Version - Edition 10 - 1st March 2009 - technical problems mean that this edition appears in full below - apologies.

 

 

 

 

Other articles of interest

 

 The following podcast looks at the review of good governance that was conducted by Harvard University(Department of Government) and analyses the findings.

 

New: Text Version only - Podcast Africa - end of year report 12/12/08

 

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/7856157.stm - an interesting article on Darwin' disgust with slavery.

 

 

Audio Version Africa - end of year report 12/12/08

 

 Text Version of AID and AFRICA

 

Because of the length of this article the text version only is available. If you have any questions or comments on the content of the article please use the comment section at the foot of the front page.

 

The Euroepan Union 

 

As many of you will know I regularly work with The Euroepan Union. In this section I will post resources which may be of use in answering papers and questions that deal with the workings of the EU. Beacause of the size of these presentations they appear in power point format only.

 

The Euro - 2009

 

Data of Sustainability of Euro

 

The Regional Policy of EU

 

The Regional Policy of EU (2)

 

Single Currency

 

External Relations

 

Evolution of EU

 

Sustainability of EMU

 

 

 

 Letter from an Economist

 

 

Text Version - Letter from an Economist - 18th September 2008.

 

PODCAST

 

Text Version - Letter from an Economist - 23rd September 2008  

 

PODCAST

 

Text Version - Letter from an Economist - 27th September 2008   

 

PODCAST

 

Text Version - Letter from an Economist - 20th October 2008.   

 

PODCAST

 

Text Version - L etter from an Economist - 29th October 2008.  

 

PODCAST

 

Text Version - Letter from an Economist - 2nd November 2008. 

 

PODCAST

 

Text Version - Letter froman Economist - 10th November 2008. 

 

PODCAST

 

Text Version - Letter from an Economist - 17th December 2008

 

Text Version - Letter from an Economist - 13th January 2009

 

Text Version - Letter from an Economist - 19th January 2009

 

Text Version - Letter from an Economist - 28th January 2009.

 

Text Version - Letter from an Economist - 1st February 2009

 

 A sample Letter fom an Economist - 1st December 2008.

 

Each week I write a short 'letter' which is my opinion on a recent event - looked at through the eyes of an economist. The following can be read, copied and listened to.

 

 Click here to download as a WORD document

 

 

Click here listen to this letter as a Podcast.

 

 Letter from an Economist – 1st December 2008. An example of a Letter from an Economist 

 

Did we see it coming?

 

  In Ministries and Board Rooms across the globe people are asking themselves one question, ‘why did we fail to see the credit crunch coming?’ This is rather interesting for as recently as the late 1990’s the ‘dot.com bubble’ had some characteristics that were apparent in the lead-up to the current crisis and to be fair many an A level candidate could have foretold the problems that would arise as house prices spiralled out of control.

It is also not a defence to suggest that the western economic system is ‘resilient’ to such shocks, for in 1998 it was the collapse of just one hedge fund, Long Term Capital Management that caused a major panic throughout financial markets across the globe. Why did we not learn from a decade of Japan’s Central Bank trying to breathe some life into the world’s second largest economy and to be fair failing? All of these were well reported and analysed at the time and yet those in authority did little, if anything, to address the main causal factors and in so doing let the disease become benign but it was not eradicated.

It might be that none of those in power and with influence wanted to deliver bad news. A housing boom is good for the wealth factor, bankers make money and dividends flow in to pension funds. In dealing rooms across the world a frenzy of derivative sales resulted and markets boomed, so who would have wanted to be the representative of the ‘dismal science’ and say that bad times were coming?

Neither do I think complacency can be used as an excuse – the signs were there – how could we have failed to note failings emerging in the modern post-deregulation financial system? Within these markets were clear signs of high levels of leverage and large sums of capital chasing returns across the globe.

Neither of the two crises noted above actually turned out to be as serious as first thought and this may also have led to some officials feeling that initial interpretations of both crises had been too pessimistic.

 The second ‘Great Crash’ did not materialise and so Greenspan and others could continue with their de-regulation era unopposed and free to remove controls over markets not noted for their ability to keep to rules.

 We are moving through the worst crisis in living memory and we are waiting to see if more aggressive and intrusive actions by various Central Banks and some governments will deliver stability to the financial markets. It remains to be seen if these essentially short-term actions will persuade the authorities to actually look at the long-term fault lines that exist within the markets. If they do, then the obvious failings of the financial system will need to be addressed and the ‘shadow banking system’ which emerged in the late 1990’s and the first part of this decade more controlled and regulated. We have to remember that once stability is achieved then the same people who brought about this crisis will be free to start again! If we are to have really learnt from the crisis and its causes then the global financial system has to be strictly regulated.

 If Obama does want to deliver true change then financial reform is essential and Gordon Brown also needs to think beyond our election cycle and address the fundamental causes of an economic downturn that still has some bad news to report.

 

 Amongst Friends

 

This monthly magazine has been written for the InterAction site, which can be found at: http://www.bc-interaction.org and was first published in April 2008. Since then a wide range of topics have been covered. The following are a selection of those used for this column. The column will continue until March 2009 and maybe beyond. The InterAction Programme has now widened its coverage and includes specialist sessions for 'leaders'.

 

Text version - October 2008

 

PODCAST Version of October edition

 

Text Edition - January 2009(Edition 1)

Text Edition - January 2009 (Edition 2)

 

Text Version - February 2009(Edition 1)

 

Because of the length of these editions I cannot record them into PODCAST format but a visit to www.http://www.bc-interaction.org/ will allow you read, copy and keep copies. Within each edition are notes on topics relevant to both the Strategic Leaders and Trust the Difference courses.

 

Text Edition - January 2009 (Edition 2)

 

 The British Council - InterAction Programme

 

Strategic Leaders

 

Some resources you may find useful as you begin to think and work towards your meetings

 

Those who wish to lead, in whichever field they work, will have to prioritise. For Africans this can be a daunting task. In the coming weeks I will be posting resources that might help you as you decide what you would wish to concentrate on and how you might achieve your objectives.

 

To start you thinking I have posted part of an article i wrote some years ago. It is about child health - an important topic in Africa and one which clearly illustrates the difficulty of deciding on an objective and then discovering just how many decisions will need to be made if your original target is to achieved. It might serve as a topic for conversation, which we can now do via the podcast and the comment section at the bottom of this front page.

 

Text of helping children to be peer health educators

 

The oral version will not appear until after Christmas.

 

You might like to read and listen to this article and think about you would address its ambitious objectives if it were part of your resposibility to create such a system in your own country

 

SWOT AnalysisText of some materials on both SWOT and PESTLE

 

This topic is too long for an oral podcast but please ask for more deatils if you would like some.

 

An introduction

Some of the challenges

An introductory course in globalisation

Extra materials in power point format

 

 

Economic Development

An introduction

An overview of economic development - 2008

The role of Multi-National Corporations(MNC's)

Extra materials in power point format

Some data ready for our discussions

 

Blogs worth visiting

http://www.cgdev.org/section/opinions/blogs/

http://blogs.odi.org.uk/blogs/main/

http://www.devex.com/blogs/252/blogs_entries

 

Green Business 

Green Business  A Case Study

 

Blogs worth visiting

 http://blog.businessgreen.com/

An excellent blog dedicated to green business.

http://www.businessgreen.com/business-green/news/2228618/biggest-sub-saharan-wind-farm

An interesting article on AFrica's largest wind farm

http://www.greenbusinessafrica.com/

An excellent site dedicated to green business across Africa

http://www.africabusinessnews.com/

A site with some news of the latest green business initiatives in Africa

http://greenafricafoundation.org/

The green Africa site, it has some excellent artciles on how the continent can both develop and yet be 'green'.

 

Food Sustainability and Security

The main issue here is to increase the productivity of 420 million small-scale farmers who farm LESS than 2 hectares. 

A brief introduction

 

Some articles on food securityand web sites worth bookmarking

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7850210.stm

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7851531.stm

http://www.un.org/issues/food/taskforce/index.shtml

http://www.fao.org/worldfoodsituation/en/

http://www.ifad.org/operations/food/

http://www.un.org/special-rep/ohrlls/ohrlls/aboutus.htm

http://www.unep.org/

http://wfp.org/english/?ModuleID=137&Key=2797

http://www.un.org/issues/food/taskforce/pdf/Madrid.pdf

http://www.unpei.org/programmes/africaprofiles.asp

http://www.unep.org/health-env/

 

Blogs to visit 

http://gosustainable.blogspot.com/

Columbia University, New York

http://wordpress.com/tag/food-sustainability/

Wide-ranging site that includes posts on food sustainability

http://gristmill.grist.org/story/2006/3/21/954/50698

A site that looks at food sustainability and the environment 

 

Climate Change

 

Melody and I are working towards my visit and we hope tp post useful resources and a regular podcast which will tell you how the project is developing.

 

The following is a detailed power point presentation on Africa nd Climate Change. It formed the main part of a presentation I gave in Harare in April 2008.

 

The British Council in Zimbabwe has embarked on a Climate Change Program in parternship with UNESCO under the title 'Our Climate, Our Future'.  Our main aims are to: 

  1. raise awareness of what Climate Change is and create a demand for action by the powers that be;

  2. support relationships and networks which lead to action on Climate Change mitigation and adaptation;

  3. match and adapt materials to a local context by adding context-specific information; and

  4. adopt a medium of delivery to suit the needs and expectations of local context 

 

This is meant to be done through three distinct phases, namely the awareness, implementation and lobbying phaes.  The first phase which is currently in the initial stages will be launched next week at the First Stakeholders Meeting on Climate Change.  Participants are from ministerial bodies, parastataals, non-governmental organizations as well as academia.

 

 

Africa and Climate Change

 

Global Warming - an update

 

Climate change - the case of China

 

Educating children in Mauritius

 

 

Some blogs worth visiting for general information on current events

 http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/robertpeston/

Robert Preston, BBC Business Editor. He is known for breaking stories before most of his colleagues

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/stephanieflanders/

Stephanie Flanders, BBC Economics Editor

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/richardblack/

Richard Black, BBC Environment Editor

http://www.bbc.co.uk/blogs/thereporters/markmardell/

Mark Mardell, BBC Europe Editor

 

 

Future Resources

 

In January 2009 John will be launching a comprehensive series of notes, questions and other resources on the PhilipAllan/Updates site, which is part of the international publishers Hodder and Stoughton's web-based learning facilities.

 

John's own site can be visited at: www.johnbirchall-economist.com where a range of resources and other items of interest are available. Amongst those that might be of interest to InterAction members are:

 

Building Self Confidence

 

 

Conflict Resolution

 

 

Developing Personal skills

 

 

Developing Value Systems

 

 

Leadership Training

 

 

Strategic Thinking

 

 

Critical Thinking

 

 Identity

 

 

Multiculturalism

 

Democracy

 

Rights

 

 Politics and Pluralism

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

http://www.unep.org/health-env/

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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